Last week was a loser for me (see trade summary below). I lost 7.75 $ES points ($387.5) on options trades, and 4.5 points ($225) on $ES futures on one $ES futures trade. Total loss on the week was 12.25 points ($625).
$ES Options Trades:
$ES Futures Trades:
I was comfortable with the trades I took but still lost money. Looking at my losers, I bought a 2000 put when $ES was at 1985 (paid 2 points in premium) as I had expected resistance at 1990 and then further resistance at 2000 if it got that high. I was wrong, but buying the put gave me a natural stop loss at 2000. I took a shot at a short $ES futures trade Friday afternoon and was looking for a little sell-off into the close. That never happened and I closed the position for a loss.
I regretably missed a long entry near $ES 1970 on the sell off Thursday, which I should have planned better with a limit-buy order, but the move was fast and I missed it (the perils of trying to trade while working a full time job). No excuses though.
On Friday, I sold a 2005/2030 Mar18 $ES strangle 19.75, which gives me breakeven points of 1985.25/2049.75 on Friday. I also sold a 2020 Mar18 $ES call (was ATM when sold) at 14.75. Note that these trades are for the March contract. If I’m given the opportunity to close my positions quickly for a profit this week I will take it.
The market strength has been impressive and the market always seems to overshoot expectations. I would not be surprised to see this market march higher before giving us a pullback. However, the more we ramp up into the Fed announcement, the more comfortable I will be initiating a short position. I’d like to see us pullback to the 2000-2010 area before initiating a new long position, but we’ll see what happens this week.
The usual hourly and daily charts are below.