June/July ’16 Update – $ES, $CL

Profit was good over the past two months (9 weeks) – $9062.50. I had not been keeping track of P&L since my last blog post around May 22nd.  It was an exercise in trying not to pay too much attention to it, although I can clearly see my account balance from day-to-day when I login.  I believe the net effect was positive, but I lost touch a bit as I was surprised (positively) by the totals. I think checking in once a month would be fine and make accounting a lot easier.

Reflecting on the past two months of trading it’s probably no surprise that Brexit stands out.  Going into the evening (here in the USA) that the Brexit votes were being counted I was flat.  That night I took a look at the premiums on the OTM ES puts could not resist selling. This proved to be premature and it took me 2 rolls down in price while increasing risk (adding contracts) to avoid a big loss.  Ultimately I ended up having a huge gain that week but I could have done just as well, if not better, had I stood aside initially. I had a pretty significant drawdown (~3%), which I believe is the most since beginning this blog.  I see the potential for a repeat of a Brexit type scenario going into the elections in November and will aim manage my trades better the next time we have a highly volatile environment.

Currently I am short 3 ES contracts.  I hedged the position going into this weekend by selling 3 puts, but I am not comfortable with this position. I’ve done well in the past at trading around a losing position and keeping risk low unitl it turns into a winner, and I will have to be careful not to let this one get away from me. It’s not beyond the realm of possibilities that we continue to run up multiple percent without a pullback, and it would be stupid to continue to fight against the move all the way up.  I’ll be looking to close the short position and get long on a pullback, although I may not get much of a pullback before I reverse my position. I will reduce exposure either way, going into the Fed’s anouncement on Wednesday.

Some additional observations about the past two months of trading:

  • Maximum drawdown of 118.25 ES points ~ $6000…Ouch! Thanks Brexit.
    • Max drawdown almost reached 3% of total trading capital
    • No other trade had a drawdown of more than 1% of trading capital.
  • Total ES points gained: 176.25 ($8812.5)
    • 27 winners,1 scratch, 21 losers – 55% win rate
    • Avg winner: 15.37 points
    • Avg loser: -11.37 points
    • 14 ES options trades: 4 winners, 1 scratch, 9 losers – net 53.75 points ($2687.5)
    • 36 ES futures trades: 24 winners, 12 losers – net 122.5 points ($6125)
  • 1 CL options trade: 1 win, 0.25 points ($250)
  • Half of my gains over the past two months came from one week – Thank You Brexit!
  • 7 winning weeks out of the past 9

All trades over the past two months (past 9 weeks) are summarized below.

Trades for Week of July 18th(open positions highlighted):1Image

Trades for Week of July 11th:2Image

Trades for Week of July 4th:3Image

Trades for Week of June 27th:4

Trades for Week of June 20th: Thank you Brexit!
5

Trades for Week of June 13th:6

Trades for Week of June 6th:7

Trades for Week of May 30th:8Image

Trades for Week of May 23rd (includes open position from previous week): 9Image

 

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